I believe, therefore I am…

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This week, a reader asked me my opinion about a media story where two men are claiming to be the father of the same baby. For those of you in the know, this story involves the recent birth of Anna Nicole Smith’s daughter. Ms. Smith is a sensational character as we all know — not someone who usually interests me — but of course, the truth does. So when a reader asked for my opinion, I sought out answers.

But this case is very interesting. Two men theoretically could each believe he is truly the father of this baby. AND IF THEY DO GENUINELY BELIEVE (not just hope or try to convince themselves), then they aren’t lying. Right? Right.

Beliefs can affect the truth.

One can believe something that has no bearing in reality. One can truly believe he is being honest when in fact he has (a) been misinformed, or (b) doesn’t know all the facts, or (c) has, in a deranged way, convinced himself fiction is fact.

If one truly believes what he is saying is the truth, I believe I will see that, and feel it. With that, I could theoretically meet two men who believe they are each the father of the same baby — and I know I would have no clue as to which one was and which one wasn’t the father. I would be in the dark.

This could happen.

But I don’t believe it has happened in this case. One man shows steadfast confidence, gives details that logically support his claims — and he gives reasons why Anna Nicole Smith has run away from him to the Bahamas. Everything is plausible and I do not see any inconsistencies in speech, stated facts taken at face-value (I didn’t go verify them), emotions, behavior, etc.

The other man comes across as very timid, insecure and full of self-doubt, and his reasoning and justifications just don’t add up. Howard Stern says Anna Nicole Smith wants to live a “normal” life in the Bahamas hence that is why she left the U.S., but she does plan on continuing her work in the U.S. A normal life in the Bahamas, commuting long distance? I just don’t see it. And there is more.

Howard Stern doesn’t explain the time lines to us about his involvement, that he had a secret affair, etc. He still could have had a secret affair with Anna. I can’t dispute that. I haven’t seen him answer questions to this point, to know any better. But he doesn’t stand strong in his belief, offer us anything convincing, etc. He doesn’t talk with conviction. Why? It gives me pause.

There are two outcomes that could come out of this situation. Howard Stern may have had a secret affair with Ms. Smith months ago — but isn’t sure he is the father — hence why all of the self-doubt — because he knew Ms. Smith was involved with her then boyfriend Larry Birkhead. Or, Howard Stern is flat out being deceptive perhaps to protect Ms. Smith. I believe his behavior hints that he is being less than honest.

I personally believe we will eventually learn that Larry Birkhead is the father of Anna Nicole Smith’s baby through DNA testing because the excuses that Howard Stern is giving just don’t add up, and aren’t logical — furthermore, he supports this with his timid, insecure behavior.

Statistically speaking, I’d say the likelihood of Stern being the father is 10% (affairs do happen!), and Birkhead being the father is 90%.

Only time will tell. Either way, Ms. Smith has some explaining to do!

More posted here on Feb 27, 2007.

Medical Deception?

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Updated

Slate ran an interesting article last week about a health stat that you should know about, but probably don’t. EVERY AMERICAN should know about this health stat– but somewhere along the way medical companies made sure it was confusiong enough you didn’t. It doesn’t have to be confusing after all — but it was made to be.

What do you need to know? It’s called N-N-T. “Numbers Needed to Treat”. Just because a drug has a a 31% reduction in say heart attacks, doesn’t mean that 31 people out of a hundred face reduced odds if they took the drug.

That’s what you thought? Didn’t you? I certainly did. Simple math.

Not so quick.

The article says, ” What, after all, does a 31 percent relative reduction in heart attacks mean? In the case of the 1995 study, it meant that taking Pravachol every day for five years reduced the incidence of heart attacks from 7.5 percent to 5.3 percent.”

“Suppose that 100 people with high cholesterol levels took statins. Of them, 93 wouldn’t have had heart attacks anyway. Five people have heart attacks despite taking Pravachol. Only the remaining two out of the original 100 avoided a heart attack by taking the daily pills. In the end, 100 people needed to be treated to avoid two heart attacks during the study period –so, the number of people who must get the treatment for a single person to benefit is 50. This is known as the ‘number needed to treat.'” (Treat Me?The crucial health stat you’ve never heard of.By Darshak SanghaviPosted Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2006)

So, a 31% reduction in heart attacks, means two people out of 100 were spared a heart attack. Did you know that is what this meant?

Next time, when you are taking a prescription drug, ask for the NNT, then look at the side effects.

Don’t miss this article. Read it here.

You decide: Is this practice deceptive? Or do you think it is necessary for 50 people to take a drug for the benefit of one?

True Story: Answer

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If you haven’t read this, STOP and read this FIRST. No need to get the answer if you haven’t read the question/story!

Is your friend telling you the truth or a lie?

Answer: A lie

Two readers questioned this and they were right. I know many people have stopped by, peered and wondered.

This is a true story that was told to a member of my family last week. When the story was relayed to me, it just didn’t sit right. Mind you, I didn’t hear the story being told by the perpetrator (we don’t even know who that is), nor did I see facial expressions or clues that this was a lie. This lie was simply discovered by applying logic. Furthermore, the person who told my family member was a recent widow and the more I thought about it, the madder I got. Being a recent widow is enough. Then to have to hear this story is just too much. Of course, now I wonder who started it and why!!

As I sat contemplating how I’d have to change my lifestyle if two thieves were running around my neighborhood, I kept hearing my family member relay the story to me. In particular, I kept hearing them say, “It takes 10 days to get published in the newspaper.” As I looked out the kitchen window, those words kept playing through my mind like a bad song you can’t purge from your memory.

After I stopped thinking about all the ways this would affect me, the broken record finally got through and I knew this was pure bull dust! We live in the information age. Ten days? No way! Maybe back in the stone age, but as long as I have been alive — the morning headlines have always been up-to-date. I knew this was pure and dirty hogwash.

Another thing that immediately bothered me was the word “robberies”. People weren’t being held up with a gun. These were burglaries. If the cops knew about this — and were perhaps at the association meeting — this would have been stated accurately. And frankly, you don’t call an association meeting and tell people this horrifying news without police support and guidance to (a) help catch the bastards (b) give safety advice to the neighbors/neighborhood. While the words could get mixed up, it was just another flag that I filed in my list of concerns.

Furthermore, I started to question the fact that these guys were black. How do we know these guys are black? Did someone’s security camera get them taped? Did someone see them? If so, then where are the artist renditions or video footage or black and white photos?? Why aren’t there WANTED signs posted around? Furthermore, why weren’t they handed out at this supposed association meeting?

Another signal to me was why would one neighbor know about this from the association meeting and not the other? The likelihood is that both neighbors live in the same association. If this information was going to be told at an association meeting — wouldn’t there have been a flier put out, perhaps? Maybe, maybe not — but if the police were involved — and wanted to catch this guy — you can pretty much be sure they would want to let everyone know — so people could help spot these guys and solve the crime spree. So, likely there would have been a flier — and a flier with faces of these guys on it. It’s not a certainty, but certainly likely. Another red flag.

Also, the details were spooky. Who was dreaming this up? A hat and gloves? They’d only take jewelry, drugs and cash. What, these guys didn’t care about TVs, DVDs, or computers? That’s unusual. People who steal for drugs — want money!! Anything valuable is worth money.

And they didn’t break anything, but took these specific valuables. Twenty four homes had open windows and doors — in a matter of a couple of weeks — that were left unlocked when no one was home. What are the odds??

This story was smelling really rotten to me.

At this point, I got online and browsed the local papers.

Nothing. Zip nadda.

Then I asked my husband to call the local police and ask. I wasn’t buying it — and furthermore I wanted this demon of monsters roaming my neighborhood stopped. We don’t have many black people in our town — and I can’t imagine how a rumor of this proportion would affect them — unfairly!!

On our way home from my relatives house, we saw a black family fishing and my heart sunk. How many people looked at them with fear? Unfairly. Unjustly. How many people treated them rudely out of pure ignorance?? It was vile and wrong.

My husband called. The police said they weren’t aware of any break-ins in the past couple of weeks. When my husband said he had heard there were 24, they said they would absolutely know about them and that there were none reported — rest assured.

Truth exposed.

Thankfully!

Be vigilant. Look over the facts, think about them. Ask yourself are they logical. Question them and then, if possible verify what you can. While your friend may not be knowingly telling a lie — someone is and has passed it on to her — and you have the power to stop it — dead in its tracks.

True Story

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Imagine you live rural, and you get a phone call.

(((Ring, ring)))

It’s your neighbor friend. She says hello and then you say hello. Then she starts talking…

“How are you? I’m just calling because I found out something you might want to know about. I guess there have been 24 robberies in the neighborhood very recently — so recently it hasn’t made the news yet. You know, it takes 10 days or so for the papers to get the story published.”

She goes on, “I’m really afraid. I went out and bought some security equipment.” She explains the equipment to you, and tells you how vulnerable she feels living alone.

“They say it is two black men, and they break in during the day when no one is home. They don’t break windows or anything — they take entry via open doors and windows. They take cash and jewelry and prescription drugs. They also wear gloves and a hat.”

You can tell she is concerned. You live in an area where there are lots of vacant vacation homes. She continues, “I found out about it from my neighbor who lives right next door. She went to an association meeting where they discussed it. Be safe, okay?”

Is your friend telling you the truth, or a lie?
Why do you say that?

Word Nuances

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It’s amazing how word order in speech (and even in writing), word groupings, word choices and voice influctuations can affect the meaning of what we say. It’s not uncommon for me to use this information to determine information about someone. It is precisely what can point me in the direction that perhaps someone is lying. While sometimes I can see the lie directly, other times it is the word order than provides me with a hint to look further. Word order that is not normal or accurate is one clue that can hint at deception.

Take for example John Karr and what he is saying. He says, “I killed JonBenet Ramsey. I love her.”

He loves her, yet if he killed her, wouldn’t he say, “I loved her.” Past tense? You see when people lie, they don’t always cover their tracks 100% because they don’t think through every detail. They don’t come naturally.

Last night, I heard someone say, “He keeps his yard up. He isn’t the pig.”

What can you glean from that statement? Anything?

You can’t spot a lie in the second statement, but you can read into. You can pretty much surmise that whoever said that believes that while this guy isn’t the pig, SOMEONE ELSE IS. Someone else is the pig. Perhaps that would also suggest that this person is picky, neat, precise… clues to put in your cap which may point out inconsistencies down the road. If this man later told me that he is a slob and order doesn’t matter — I’d know better.

Little word nuances: They can have big impact.